GTM CommonplaceEpisode 1
no more gut feeling

Do you actually have product-market fit?

How to define it, measure it every month, and know when you've lost it.

An interactive guide by elefante RevOps. Use the arrows or the Next button to move through it.

Today's agenda

Today's agenda

PMFThe definition

Product-market fit occurs when our customers continuously realize the value they were promised…

Mark Roberge, The Science of Scaling
How to quantify itIn tech, the clearest proof is long-term customer retention.
Why retentionA renewal means they bought it, used it, and chose to keep using it. That beats any survey.
The benchmarkAnnual customer retention above 90%.
measurable with the Bowtie model

Today's agenda

WhyThe growth model

PMF is the gate. Everything else comes after.

Revenue Scaling before PMF: growth, then churn MVP PMF GTM fit Revenue factory SAB CDEIPO SeedStartupScaleupGrownup

Simplified from Winning by Design's Growth Model (Revenue Architecture, Jacco van der Kooij). Funding rounds S to IPO shown on the axis.

WhyThe problem

Retention proves fit. It just tells you too late.

Customers who stay are the clearest proof that you built something people need. But renewals and churn take quarters, sometimes a full year, to show up. Early on, you can't afford to wait that long between experiments.

everything in red = time you lose waiting
WhyThe idea

Measure what predicts retention, not retention itself.

The Leading Indicator of Retention (LIR) is a customer behaviour you can see early that tells you, with confidence, that the customer will stick around.

Some people call it the "aha moment". The difference here is that the LIR is objective and tied to long-term retention, not a hunch.

There is no universal LIR. Each company has to define its own, and if you sell several products or services, each one needs its own LIR.

Today's agenda

HowThe formula

Product-market fit is true if of customers achieve every .

Click each variable to see what it means.

HowWhat it looks like

Same sentence, different businesses.

Invoicelyinvoicing for accounting firms
70% of firms send 30+ invoices through the product every month
ShiftPilotstaff scheduling for restaurants
75% of restaurants publish next week's schedule in the app every week
ClinicNoteAI notes for clinics
65% of clinicians sign off 40+ AI-drafted notes every month
PayRunpayroll for small teams
80% of companies run payroll with zero manual corrections every pay cycle

Fictional companies, for illustration.

HowVariable 1 of 3: Percentage

P: how many customers is enough?

70%

0%25%50%75%100%

Adjust for your market - the dashed band is where P usually lands

HowVariable 2 of 3: Event

E: the behaviour that predicts a customer will stay.

ObjectiveIt happened or it didn't. No interpretation.
InstrumentableYour systems can track it automatically.
Tied to customer valueIt reflects the customer getting results, not just activity.
Linked to your unique valueSo marketing, sales and CS can all aim at it.
SimpleCombine events with AND / OR only if it predicts much better.
Good E or bad E? Click to reveal.
HowVariable 2 of 3: Event, continued

Raise the bar on E as you learn.

Early in the rollout, when setup takes real time and effort, start with an easy event and make it harder as the product matures.

Setup

Easiest to reach
Sent the first invoice

Engagement

Shows a real habit
Sends 30+ invoices a month

ROI

Hardest, strongest signal
Gets paid 10 days faster
start simple → end with proof of value
HowVariable 3 of 3: Time

T: how often you check.

Shorter periods mean faster learning, but T has to match how customers actually use the product. A clinic that is packed on Mondays and quiet on Wednesdays isn't unhappy on Wednesdays.

Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Today's agenda

WhatMeasuring it

Track every customer, every period.

Invoicely's LIR: 70% of firms send 30+ invoices every month. Click any box to change it.

70%Goal
–Actual, last month
LIR achievedNot achievedMonth that counts Faded rows: not ICP, or signed less than a month ago
WhatAfter you hit it

You can lose product-market fit.

Keep measuring the LIR after you reach your goal. Because it moves months before churn does, it warns you early, and that safety net gives you the confidence to start scaling a little sooner.

AI shifts can move this fast - watch it monthly

Things that can break fit

  • Hiring and training new salespeople
  • Entering new markets or segments
  • Launching new products
  • New competitors
  • Shifts in the economy
  • New technology, like AI
WhatYour turn

Write your LIR in one sentence.

Got your sentence? The next step is tracking it in your CRM every month. elefante RevOps helps B2B teams build that dashboard in HubSpot.

Talk to elefante RevOps

References

  1. Roberge, M. (2026). The Science of Scaling: Using Data to Decide When—and How Fast—to Scale Revenue. Wiley. Chapter 1, "Is Product-Market Fit… a Feeling?" and Chapter 2, "Defining the Leading Indicator of Retention (LIR)". stage2.capital/science-of-scaling-book
  2. van der Kooij, J. (2024). Revenue Architecture. Winning by Design. The Growth Model and the Bowtie model. winningbydesign.com/revenue-architecture